Difference between revisions of "2010 AIME I Problems/Problem 4"

Problem

Jackie and Phil have two fair coins and a third coin that comes up heads with probability $\frac47$. Jackie flips the three coins, and then Phil flips the three coins. Let $\frac {m}{n}$ be the probability that Jackie gets the same number of heads as Phil, where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers. Find $m + n$.

Solution 1

This can be solved quickly and easily with generating functions.

Let $x^0 = 1$ represent heads and $x$ represent tails.

The generating functions for these coins are $(1+x)$,$(1+x)$,and $(4+3x)$ in order.

The product is $3+10x+11x^2+4x^3$.

The sum of the coefficients squared is 784 and the sum of the squares of each coefficient is 246. The probability is then $\frac{246}{784} = \frac{123}{392}$.

$123 + 392 = \boxed{515}$

Solution 2

We perform casework based upon the number of heads that are flipped.

The only possibility is TTT (the third coin being the unfair coin). The probability for this to happen to Jackie is $\frac {1}{2} \cdot \frac {1}{2} \cdot \frac {3}{7} = \frac {3}{28}$ Thus the probability for this to happen to both players is $\left(\frac {3}{28}\right)^2 = \frac {9}{784}$
We can have either HTT, THT, or TTH. The first two happen to Jackie with the same $\frac {3}{28}$ chance, but the third happens $\frac {4}{28}$ of the time, since the unfair coin is heads instead of tails. With 3 possibilities for Jackie and 3 for Phil, there are a total of 9 ways for them both to have 1 head.
Multiplying and adding up all 9 ways, we have a
$$\frac {4(3 \cdot 3) + 4(3 \cdot 4) + 1(4 \cdot 4)}{28^{2}} = \frac {100}{784}$$
overall chance for this case.
With HHT $\frac {3}{28}$, HTH $\frac {4}{28}$, and THH $\frac {4}{28}$ possible, we proceed as in Case 2, obtaining
$$\frac {1(3 \cdot 3) + 4(3 \cdot 4) + 4(4 \cdot 4)}{28^{2}} = \frac {121}{784}.$$
Similar to Case 1, we can only have HHH, which has $\frac {4}{28}$ chance. Then in this case we get $\frac {16}{784}$

Finally, we take the sum: $\frac {9 + 100 + 121 + 16}{784} = \frac {246}{784} = \frac {123}{392}$, so our answer is $123 + 392 = \fbox{515}$.

 2010 AIME I (Problems • Answer Key • Resources) Preceded byProblem 3 Followed byProblem 5 1 • 2 • 3 • 4 • 5 • 6 • 7 • 8 • 9 • 10 • 11 • 12 • 13 • 14 • 15 All AIME Problems and Solutions