Difference between revisions of "2019 AMC 12B Problems/Problem 16"
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Similarly, multiply your product by <math>\frac{1}{2}</math> once more, to arrive at spot <math>5</math>: <math>\frac{3}{8} \times {1}{2} = \frac{3}{16}</math>. For number <math>7</math>, take another <math>\frac{1}{2}</math>, giving us <math>\frac{3}{16} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{3}{32}</math>. | Similarly, multiply your product by <math>\frac{1}{2}</math> once more, to arrive at spot <math>5</math>: <math>\frac{3}{8} \times {1}{2} = \frac{3}{16}</math>. For number <math>7</math>, take another <math>\frac{1}{2}</math>, giving us <math>\frac{3}{16} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{3}{32}</math>. | ||
− | Next, we must look at a number of options. For a fuller picture, it would be best to break down the choices. The only possibilities here are <math>(8,9,10)</math>, <math>(8,10)</math>, and <math>(9,10)</math>, as the path straight to point <math>10</math> is not available. That leaves us with a partial count of <math>\frac{1}{8} + \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4} = frac{5}{8}</math>. Multiply, to find that <math>\frac{3}{32} \times {5}{8} = \boxed{\textbf{(A)} \frac{15}{256}}</math>. <math>\square</math> | + | Next, we must look at a number of options. For a fuller picture, it would be best to break down the choices. The only possibilities here are <math>(8,9,10)</math>, <math>(8,10)</math>, and <math>(9,10)</math>, as the path straight to point <math>10</math> is not available. That leaves us with a partial count of <math>\frac{1}{8} + \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4} = frac{5}{8}</math>. Multiply, to find that <math>\frac{3}{32} \times \frac{5}{8} = \boxed{\textbf{(A)} \frac{15}{256}}</math>. <math>\square</math> |
--anna0kear. | --anna0kear. |
Revision as of 21:39, 14 February 2019
Contents
[hide]Problem
Lily pads numbered from to lie in a row on a pond. Fiona the frog sits on pad , a morsel of food sits on pad , and predators sit on pads and . At each unit of time the frog jumps either to the next higher numbered pad or to the pad after that, each with probability , independently from previous jumps. What is the probability that Fiona skips over pads and and lands on pad ?
Solution 1
First, notice that Fiona, if she jumps over the predator on pad , must land on pad . Similarly, she must land on if she makes it past . Thus, we can split it into smaller problems counting the probability Fiona skips , Fiona skips (starting at ) and skip (starting at ). Incidentally, the last one is equivalent to the first one minus .
Let's call the larger jump a -jump, and the smaller a -jump.
For the first mini-problem, let's see our options. Fiona can either go (probability of ), or she can go (probability of ). These are the only two options, so they together make the answer . We now also know the answer to the last mini-problem ().
For the second mini-problem, Fiona go (probability of ). Any other option results in her death to a predator.
Thus, the final answer is .
Solution 2
Consider – independently – every spot that the frog could attain.
Given that it can only jump at most places per move, and still wishes to avoid pads and , it must also land on numbers , , , and .
There are two ways to get to that point – one would be on the first move, and the other is just . The total sum is then , which put into our first column and move on. The frog must subsequently go to space , again with probability . Thus, be sure to multiply by again, yielding the result of .
Similarly, multiply your product by once more, to arrive at spot : . For number , take another , giving us .
Next, we must look at a number of options. For a fuller picture, it would be best to break down the choices. The only possibilities here are , , and , as the path straight to point is not available. That leaves us with a partial count of . Multiply, to find that .
--anna0kear.
See Also
2019 AMC 12B (Problems • Answer Key • Resources) | |
Preceded by Problem 15 |
Followed by Problem 17 |
1 • 2 • 3 • 4 • 5 • 6 • 7 • 8 • 9 • 10 • 11 • 12 • 13 • 14 • 15 • 16 • 17 • 18 • 19 • 20 • 21 • 22 • 23 • 24 • 25 | |
All AMC 12 Problems and Solutions |
The problems on this page are copyrighted by the Mathematical Association of America's American Mathematics Competitions.