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| − | ==Problem==
| + | #REDIRECT [[2020 AMC 10B Problems/Problem 18]] |
| − | An urn contains one red ball and one blue ball. A box of extra red and blue balls lie nearby. George performs the following operation four times: he draws a ball from the urn at random and then takes a ball of the same color from the box and returns those two matching balls to the urn.
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| − | After the four iterations the urn contains six balls. What is the probability that the urn contains three balls of each color?
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| − | <math>\textbf{(A)}\ \frac{1}{6} \qquad\textbf{(B)}\ \frac{1}{5} \qquad\textbf{(C)}\ \frac{1}{4} \qquad\textbf{(D)}\ \frac{1}{3} \qquad\textbf{(E)}\ \frac{1}{2}</math>
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| − | ==Solution==
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| − | Let the probability that the urn ends up with more red balls be denoted <math>P(R)</math>. Since this is equal to the probability there are more blue balls, the probability there are equal amounts is <math>1-2P(R)</math>. <math>P(R) =</math> the probability no more blues are chosen plus the probability only 1 more blue is chosen. The first case, <math>P(\text{no more blues}) = \frac{1}{2}*\frac{2}{3}*\frac{3}{4}*\frac{4}{5}=\frac{1}{5}</math>.
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| − | The second case, <math>P(\text{1 more blue}) = 4*\frac{1*1*2*3}{2*3*4*5} = \frac{1}{5}</math>. Thus, the answer is <math>1-2(\frac{1}{5}+\frac{1}{5})=1-\frac{4}{5}=\boxed{\textbf{(B)}\ \frac{1}{5}}</math>.
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| − | ~JHawk0224
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| − | ==Solution 2==
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| − | By conditional probability after 4 rounds we have 5 cases: RRRBBB, RRRRBB, RRBBBB, RRRRRB and BRRRRR. Thus the probability is <math>\frac{1}{5}</math>. Put <math>\boxed{B}</math>.
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| − | ~FANYUCHEN20020715
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| − | ==Solution 3==
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| − | After 5 rounds one can either have a 4+1 configuration (XXXXY), or 3+2 configuration (XXXYY). The probability of getting to XXXYYY from XXXYY is <math>\frac{2}{5}</math>. Observe that the probability of arriving to XXXXY configuration is <math>\frac{2}{3} \frac{3}{4} = \frac{1}{2}</math> (
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| − | ==See Also==
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| − | {{AMC12 box|year=2020|ab=B|num-b=15|num-a=17}}
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| − | {{MAA Notice}}
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