# 2014 AIME II Problems/Problem 2

## Problem

Arnold is studying the prevalence of three health risk factors, denoted by A, B, and C, within a population of men. For each of the three factors, the probability that a randomly selected man in the population has only this risk factor (and none of the others) is 0.1. For any two of the three factors, the probability that a randomly selected man has exactly these two risk factors (but not the third) is 0.14. The probability that a randomly selected man has all three risk factors, given that he has A and B is $\frac{1}{3}$. The probability that a man has none of the three risk factors given that he does not have risk factor A is $\frac{p}{q}$, where $p$ and $q$ are relatively prime positive integers. Find $p+q$.

## Solution

We first assume a population of $100$ to facilitate solving. Then we simply organize the statistics given into a Venn diagram. $[asy] pair A,B,C,D,E,F,G; A=(0,55); B=(60,55); C=(60,0); D=(0,0); draw(A--B--C--D--A); E=(30,35); F=(20,20); G=(40,20); draw(circle(E,15)); draw(circle(F,15)); draw(circle(G,15)); draw("A",(30,52)); draw("B",(7,7)); draw("C",(53,7)); draw("100",(5,60)); draw("10",(30,40)); draw("10",(15,15)); draw("10",(45,15)); draw("14",(30,16)); draw("14",(38,29)); draw("14",(22,29)); draw("x",(30,25)); draw("y",(10,45)); [/asy]$

Let $x$ be the number of men with all three risk factors. Since "the probability that a randomly selected man has all three risk factors, given that he has A and B is $\frac{1}{3}$," we can tell that $x = \frac{1}{3}(x+14)$, since there are $x$ people with all three factors and 14 with only A and B. Thus $x=7$.

Let $y$ be the number of men with no risk factors. It now follows that $$y= 100 - 3 \cdot 10 - 3 \cdot 14 - 7 = 21.$$ The number of men with risk factor A is $10+2 \cdot 14+7 = 45$ (10 with only A, 28 with A and one of the others, and 7 with all three). Thus the number of men without risk factor $A$ is 55, so the desired conditional probability is $21/55$. So the answer is $21+55=\boxed{076}$.

The problems on this page are copyrighted by the Mathematical Association of America's American Mathematics Competitions. 