Art of Problem Solving
AoPS Online
Math texts, online classes, and more
for students in grades 5-12.
Visit AoPS Online ‚
Books for Grades 5-12 Online Courses
Beast Academy
Engaging math books and online learning
for students ages 6-13.
Visit Beast Academy ‚
Books for Ages 6-13 Beast Academy Online
AoPS Academy
Small live classes for advanced math
and language arts learners in grades 2-12.
Visit AoPS Academy ‚
Find a Physical Campus Visit the Virtual Campus

Difference between revisions of "2024 AIME I Problems/Problem 4"

(→‎Solution 2)
(→‎Solution 2)
Line 30: Line 30:
  
 
<math>1/(1+24+90)</math> = \dfrac1{115}<math>.
 
<math>1/(1+24+90)</math> = \dfrac1{115}<math>.
−
 
+
Therefore, our answer is </math>1+115=\boxed{116}$.
−
Therefore, the answer is </math>1+115=\boxed{116}$.
 
  
 
==See also==
 
==See also==

Revision as of 18:51, 2 February 2024

Problem

Jen enters a lottery by picking $4$ distinct numbers from $S=\{1,2,3,\cdots,9,10\}.$ $4$ numbers are randomly chosen from $S.$ She wins a prize if at least two of her numbers were $2$ of the randomly chosen numbers, and wins the grand prize if all four of her numbers were the randomly chosen numbers. The probability of her winning the grand prize given that she won a prize is $\frac{p}{q}$ where $p,q$ are relatively prime. What is the value of $p+q$?

Solution

This is a conditional probability problem. Bayes' Theorem states that \[P(A|B)=\dfrac{P(B|A)\cdot P(A)}{P(B)}\]

in other words, the probability of $A$ given $B$ is equal to the probability of $B$ given $A$ times the probability of $A$ divided by the probability of $B$. In our case, $A$ represents the probability of winning the grand prize, and $B$ represents the probability of winning a prize. Clearly, $P(B|A)=1$, since by winning the grand prize you automatically win a prize. Thus, we want to find $\dfrac{P(A)}{P(B)}$.

Let us calculate the probability of winning a prize. We do this through casework: how many of Jen's drawn numbers match the lottery's drawn numbers?

To win a prize, Jen must draw at least $2$ numbers identical to the lottery. Thus, our cases are drawing $2$, $3$, or $4$ numbers identical.

Let us first calculate the number of ways to draw exactly $2$ identical numbers to the lottery. Let Jen choose the numbers $a$, $b$, $c$, and $d$; we have $\dbinom42$ ways to choose which $2$ of these $4$ numbers are identical to the lottery. We have now determined $2$ of the $4$ numbers drawn in the lottery; since the other $2$ numbers Jen chose can not be chosen by the lottery, the lottery now has $10-2-2=6$ numbers to choose the last $2$ numbers from. Thus, this case is $\dbinom62$, so this case yields $\dbinom42\dbinom62=6\cdot15=90$ possibilities.

Next, let us calculate the number of ways to draw exactly $3$ identical numbers to the lottery. Again, let Jen choose $a$, $b$, $c$, and $d$. This time, we have $\dbinom43$ ways to choose the identical numbers and again $6$ numbers left for the lottery to choose from; however, since $3$ of the lottery's numbers have already been determined, the lottery only needs to choose $1$ more number, so this is $\dbinom61$. This case yields $\dbinom43\dbinom61=4\cdot6=24$.

Finally, let us calculate the number of ways to all $4$ numbers matching. There is actually just one way for this to happen.

In total, we have $90+24+1=115$ ways to win a prize. The lottery has $\dbinom{10}4=210$ possible combinations to draw, so the probability of winning a prize is $\dfrac{115}{210}$. There is actually no need to simplify it or even evaluate $\dbinom{10}4$ or actually even know that it has to be $\dbinom{10}4$; it suffices to call it $a$ or some other variable, as it will cancel out later. However, let us just go through with this. The probability of winning a prize is $\dfrac{115}{210}$. Note that the probability of winning a grand prize is just matching all $4$ numbers, which we already calculated to have $1$ possibility and thus have probability $\dfrac1{210}$. Thus, our answer is $\dfrac{\frac1{210}}{\frac{115}{210}}=\dfrac1{115}$. Therefore, our answer is $1+115=\boxed{116}$.

~Technodoggo

Solution 2

For getting all $4$ right, there is only $1$ way.

For getting $3$ right, there is $\dbinom43$ multiplied by $\dbinom61$ = $24$.

For getting $2$ right, there is $\dbinom42$ multiplied by $\dbinom62$ = $90$.

$1/(1+24+90)$ = \dfrac1{115}$. Therefore, our answer is$1+115=\boxed{116}$.

See also

2024 AIME I (Problems • Answer Key • Resources)
Preceded by
Problem 3 		Followed by
Problem 5
1 • 2 • 3 • 4 • 5 • 6 • 7 • 8 • 9 • 10 • 11 • 12 • 13 • 14 • 15
All AIME Problems and Solutions

The problems on this page are copyrighted by the Mathematical Association of America's American Mathematics Competitions. AMC logo.png

Retrieved from "https://artofproblemsolving.com/wiki/index.php?title=2024_AIME_I_Problems/Problem_4&oldid=214247"