2023 AMC 12A Problems/Problem 5

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The following problem is from both the 2023 AMC 10A #7 and 2023 AMC 12A #5, so both problems redirect to this page.

Problem

Janet rolls a standard $6$-sided die $4$ times and keeps a running total of the numbers she rolls. What is the probability that at some point, her running total will equal $3$?

$\textbf{(A) }\frac{2}{9}\qquad\textbf{(B) }\frac{49}{216}\qquad\textbf{(C) }\frac{25}{108}\qquad\textbf{(D) }\frac{17}{72}\qquad\textbf{(E) }\frac{13}{54}$

Solution 1 (Casework)

There are $3$ cases where the running total will equal $3$; one roll; two rolls; or three rolls:

Case 1: The chance of rolling a running total of $3$ in exactly one roll is $\frac{1}{6}$.

Case 2: The chance of rolling a running total of $3$ in exactly two rolls is $\frac{1}{6}\cdot\frac{1}{6}\cdot2=\frac{1}{18}$ since the dice rolls consist of a singular 2 and a singular 1 and vice versa.

Case 3: The chance of rolling a running total of 3 in exactly three rolls is $\frac{1}{6}\cdot\frac{1}{6}\cdot\frac{1}{6}=\frac{1}{216}$ since the dice rolls would consist of 3 ones.

Using the rule of sum we have $\frac{1}{6}+\frac{1}{18}+\frac{1}{216}=\boxed{\textbf{(B) }\frac{49}{216}}$.

~walmartbrian ~andyluo ~DRBStudent ~MC_ADe

Solution 2 (Brute Force)

Because there is only a maximum of 3 rolls we must count (running total = 3 means there can't be a fourth roll counted), we can simply list out all of the probabilities.

If we roll a 1 on the first, the rolls that follow must be 2 or {1,1}, with the following results not mattering. This leaves a probability of $\frac{1}{6}\times\frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{6}\times\frac{1}{6}\times\frac{1}{6} = \frac{7}{216}$.

If we roll a 2 on the first, the roll that follows must be 1, resulting in a probability of $\frac{1}{6}\times\frac{1}{6} = \frac{1}{36}$.

If we roll a 3 on the first, the following rolls do not matter, resulting in a probability of $\frac{1}{6}$. Any roll greater than three will result in a running total greater than 3 no matter what, so those cases can be ignored. Summing the answers, we have $\frac{7}{216} + \frac{1}{36} + \frac{1}{6} = \frac{7+6+36}{216} = \boxed{\textbf{(B) }\frac{49}{216}}$.

~Failure.net

Solution 3

Consider sequences of 4 integers with each integer between 1 and 6, the number of permutations of 6 numbers is $6^4=1296$.

The following 4 types of sequences that might generate a running total of the numbers to be equal to 3 (x, y, or z denotes any integer between 1 and 6).

Sequence #1, (1, 1, 1, x): there are $6$ possible sequences.

Sequence #2, (1, 2, x, y): there are $6^2 = 36$ possible sequences.

Sequence #3, (2, 1, x, y): there are $6^2 = 36$ possible sequences.

Sequence #4, (3, x, y, z): there are $6^3 = 216$ possible sequences.

Out of 1296 possible sequences, there are a total of $6 + 36 + 36 + 216 = 294$ sequences that qualify. Hence, the probability is $294 / 1296 = \boxed{\textbf{(B) }\frac{49}{216}}$

~sqroot


Video Solution by Math-X (First understand the problem!!!)

https://youtu.be/cMgngeSmFCY?si=_Q5YRd-S4B1TH79F&t=1426 ~Math-X

Video Solution

https://youtu.be/bqLA67R_5Bk

~Steven Chen (Professor Chen Education Palace, www.professorchenedu.com)

Video Solution (⚡ Just 3 min ⚡)

https://youtu.be/8G5FfjUkQkQ

~Education, the Study of Everything

See Also

2023 AMC 10A (ProblemsAnswer KeyResources)
Preceded by
Problem 6
Followed by
Problem 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
All AMC 10 Problems and Solutions
2023 AMC 12A (ProblemsAnswer KeyResources)
Preceded by
Problem 4
Followed by
Problem 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
All AMC 12 Problems and Solutions

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