1995 AIME Problems/Problem 15

Problem

Let $p_{}$ be the probability that, in the process of repeatedly flipping a fair coin, one will encounter a run of $5$ heads before one encounters a run of $2$ tails. Given that $p_{}$ can be written in the form $m/n$ where $m_{}$ and $n_{}$ are relatively prime positive integers, find $m+n$.

Solution

Solution 1

Think of the problem as a sequence of H's and T's. No two T's can occur in a row, so the sequence is blocks of $1$ to $4$ H's separated by T's and ending in $5$ H's. Since the first letter could be T or the sequence could start with a block of H's, the total probability is $3/2$ that of it had to start with and H.

The answer to the problem is then the sum of all numbers of the form $\frac 32 \left( \frac 1{2^a} \cdot \frac 12 \cdot \frac 1{2^b} \cdot \frac 12 \cdot \frac 1{2^c} \cdots \right) \cdot \left(\frac 12\right)^5$, where $a,b,c \ldots$ are all numbers $1-4$, since the blocks of H's can range from $1-4$ in length. The sum of all numbers of the form $(1/2)^a$ is $1/2+1/4+1/8+1/16=15/16$, so if there are n blocks of H's before the final five H's, the answer can be rewritten as the sum of all numbers of the form $\frac 32\left( \left(\frac {15}{16}\right)^n \cdot \left(\frac 12\right)^n \right) \cdot \left(\frac 1{32}\right)=\frac 3{64}\left(\frac{15}{32}\right)^n$, where $n$ ranges from $0$ to $\infty$, since that's how many blocks of H's there can be before the final five. This is an infinite geometric series whose sum is $\frac{3/64}{1-(15/32)}=\frac{3}{34}$, so the answer is $\boxed{037}$.

Solution 2

Let $p_H, p_T$ respectively denote the probabilities that a string of H's and T's are successful. A successful string can either start with H, or it can start with T and then continue with a string starting with H (as there cannot be $2$ T's in a row). Thus

$p_T = \frac 12p_H.$

A successful string starting with H must start with a block of $1,2,3,4$ H's, then a T, then a successful string starting with H, or reach a block of $5$ H's. Thus,

$p_H = \left(\frac{1}{2} + \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{8} + \frac{1}{16}\right) \cdot \left(\frac 12\right) p_H + \frac{1}{32} \Longrightarrow p_H = \frac{1}{17}.$

The answer is $p_H + p_T = \frac{3}{2}p_H = \frac{3}{34}$, and $m+n = \boxed{037}$.

See also

1995 AIME (ProblemsAnswer KeyResources)
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