Chances of mathcounts nats qual

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stjwyl

1228 posts

stjwyl

#1 h Feb 21, 2025, 12:56 AM

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Info:
In 8th grade so I'm really hoping I can make nats now

I currently mock around 38 - 40 on nationals questions from 2015+
I mock anywhere from 37 - 42 on state questons from 2020+

For the sprint round I also have noticed that the difficulty jump from questions around 19 and 20 to questions around 22 and 23 has been really large (starting from 2023). I've also noticed that the last three questions (also from 2023 ->) are IMO impossible to do in the 40 minutes.

On target I can get 7/8 or even 8/8 if I'm lucky but it's possible for me to get 6/8

I'm in MA :sob: really hard state so do I have a chance

Edit: Just mocked the 2022 state round and got a 41 (29 sprint, 12 target :sob:)

Currently putting around 3 hrs or so a day and I have been for the past 2 months
States is 3/1 for me :sob:

so am i cooked

This post has been edited 2 times. Last edited by stjwyl, Feb 22, 2025, 8:51 PM

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chesskingaops

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chesskingaops

#2 h Feb 21, 2025, 1:08 AM

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i dont know mathcounts, but you look pretty good

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stjwyl

1228 posts

stjwyl

#3 h Feb 21, 2025, 1:33 AM

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/bump

@above ty for response

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DhruvJha

730 posts

DhruvJha

#4 h Feb 21, 2025, 1:38 AM

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stjwyl wrote:

/bump

@above ty for response

2022 state was very easy, notoriously easy state round. Your scores are still ectremely high. I can give you access to 2018-2024 Nats, and maybe time yourself like it would be at the real states. I'd say you would need to mock 33+ on those nats round to be a safe "in" (adding 3 for extra pressure due to comp pressure).

Or just move to Arkansas and get in with a 25 like me last year.

And also I would reccomend to amc 10 last 5 problems from those aops mocks user-created. Those tend to be similar to 27-30 on mathcounts states which tends to biggest struggle for someone in ur situation.

Hope I helped!

This post has been edited 3 times. Last edited by DhruvJha, Feb 21, 2025, 1:40 AM
Reason: swsw

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stjwyl

1228 posts

stjwyl

#5 h Feb 21, 2025, 1:40 AM

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wild fr

I have nats problems, but thanks for the offer
Currently mocking 2021

MA is really hard tho which is why im so unsure
like 2022 cutoff was 42 :/
last year cutoff was 38 :/ and i mocked a 37 on it :/ D:

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stjwyl

1228 posts

stjwyl

#6 h Feb 21, 2025, 1:41 AM

Y by

DhruvJha wrote:

stjwyl wrote:

/bump

@above ty for response

2022 state was very easy, notoriously easy state round. Your scores are still ectremely high. I can give you access to 2018-2024 Nats, and maybe time yourself like it would be at the real states. I'd say you would need to mock 33+ on those nats round to be a safe "in" (adding 3 for extra pressure due to comp pressure).

Or just move to Arkansas and get in with a 25 like me last year.

And also I would reccomend to amc 10 last 5 problems from those aops mocks user-created. Those tend to be similar to 27-30 on mathcounts states which tends to biggest struggle for someone in ur situation.

Hope I helped!

dam are last 3 rlly that hard lol
thx for help

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DhruvJha

730 posts

DhruvJha

#7 h Feb 21, 2025, 1:42 AM

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yeah, i solve a lot of them in mocks but the ones at real test are hard. I guess it varies. 2019, 2022 were pretty easy but 2024, 2017, 2023 were tough.

I could've prob been better but I didn't grind too hard and i basically had free nats qual being in arkansas.

This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by DhruvJha, Feb 21, 2025, 1:43 AM
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DhruvJha

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DhruvJha

#8 h Feb 21, 2025, 1:45 AM

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Also, when you're practicing put yourself on 25 min time limit for sprint and 4 per set for target. That tends to simulate real competition stress.

And correct me if i'm wrong, MA should be significantly less competitive this year with the leaving of orz people like selena. So just try to make sure youve got all the first 25 correct, before attempting the last 5. I think you can do it.

This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by DhruvJha, Feb 21, 2025, 1:47 AM
Reason: j

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chesskingaops

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chesskingaops

#9 h Feb 21, 2025, 1:48 AM

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What did you get for AMC 8 @ stjwyl (sorry if irrelevant)

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stjwyl

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stjwyl

#10 h Feb 21, 2025, 1:49 AM

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24 :<
i basically sillied 50+55 :facepalm:

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DhruvJha

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DhruvJha

#11 h Feb 21, 2025, 1:49 AM

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just curious what were you at states lastyear

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stjwyl

1228 posts

stjwyl

#12 h Feb 21, 2025, 1:50 AM

Y by

DhruvJha wrote:

Also, when you're practicing put yourself on 25 min time limit for sprint and 4 per set for target. That tends to simulate real competition stress.

And correct me if i'm wrong, MA should be significantly less competitive this year with the leaving of orz people like selena. So just try to make sure youve got all the first 25 correct, before attempting the last 5. I think you can do it.

im pretty sure selena's last year was like 2022

also i was in canada for ayear in 7th grade so i wasnt able to do

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DhruvJha

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DhruvJha

#13 h Feb 21, 2025, 1:51 AM

Y by

stjwyl wrote:

DhruvJha wrote:

Also, when you're practicing put yourself on 25 min time limit for sprint and 4 per set for target. That tends to simulate real competition stress.

And correct me if i'm wrong, MA should be significantly less competitive this year with the leaving of orz people like selena. So just try to make sure youve got all the first 25 correct, before attempting the last 5. I think you can do it.

im pretty sure selena's last year was like 2022

also i was in canada for ayear in 7th grade so i wasnt able to do

Selena was runner-up last year

but if im being honest your probably gonna have to try to get 23 of the first 25 right, and a 6-7 on target to make it.

This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by DhruvJha, Feb 21, 2025, 1:52 AM
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pingpongmerrily

3501 posts

pingpongmerrily

#14 h Feb 21, 2025, 1:55 AM

Y by

stjwyl wrote:

Info:
In 8th grade so I'm really hoping I can make nats now

I currently mock around 38 - 40 on nationals questions from 2015+
I mock anywhere from 37 - 42 on state questons from 2020+

For the sprint round I also have noticed that the difficulty jump from questions around 19 and 20 to questions around 22 and 23 has been really large (starting from 2023). I've also noticed that the last three questions (also from 2023 ->) are IMO impossible to do in the 40 minutes.

On target I can get 7/8 or even 8/8 if I'm lucky but it's possible for me to get 6/8

I'm in MA :sob: really hard state so do I have a chance

Edit: Just mocked the 2022 state round and got a 41 (29 sprint, 12 target :sob:)

bro target is so easy to sell
also btw the last 3 questions aren't that deep
for last year, Q30 was trivial in like 2 minutes, #28 was solvable in 5 minutes, #29 was a bit harder but definitely doable
you will need to cook here
i mock like a 30 which should be good for first :coolspeak:

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stjwyl

1228 posts

stjwyl

#15 h Feb 21, 2025, 1:55 AM

Y by

wait rlly
omg wait that means she and her brother r leavin right
thats 2 orz ppl

but then again there was a 6th grader who qualed for nats last year
and he got 3rd in his chapter :/

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MathPerson12321

3616 posts

MathPerson12321

#71 h Mar 5, 2025, 4:44 PM

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Jaxman8 wrote:

bot1132 wrote:

stjwyl wrote:

jmo level is garunted qual in top 4 states

nah definitely not

A 230 index borderline JMO qual got like 6th in my chapter.

maybe they just sold?

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HenryJW

42 posts

HenryJW

#72 h Mar 6, 2025, 2:42 PM

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MathPerson12321 wrote:

Jaxman8 wrote:

bot1132 wrote:

nah definitely not

A 230 index borderline JMO qual got like 6th in my chapter.

maybe they just sold?

for chapter basically anything can happen, a one point difference can send you down like 4 places (unless you were top 4 anyways), in my chapter my friend with a 269 got like 8th lol

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AMathCountsguy10

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AMathCountsguy10

#73 h Mar 6, 2025, 3:14 PM

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was that leo hong or lucas li
cuz i know shivank got 1st and u got 6th

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Schintalpati

583 posts

Schintalpati

#74 h Mar 10, 2025, 11:47 PM

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AMathCountsguy10 wrote:

was that leo hong or lucas li
cuz i know shivank got 1st and u got 6th

It was Leo, Henry got 2nd, Lucas got 6th.

This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by Schintalpati, Mar 10, 2025, 11:48 PM
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AMathCountsguy10

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AMathCountsguy10

#75 h Mar 10, 2025, 11:50 PM

Y by

bro i might no long er be screwed cuz henry ptsd from no jmo qual and leo steadily getting worse over the years ur the only persen i have to be afraid of cuz u 46'd chapter

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Schintalpati

583 posts

Schintalpati

#76 h Mar 10, 2025, 11:55 PM

Y by

AMathCountsguy10 wrote:

bro i might no long er be screwed cuz henry ptsd from no jmo qual and leo steadily getting worse over the years ur the only persen i have to be afraid of cuz u 46'd chapter

Leo got 13 AIME bro :crying:, yea Henry is pretty stacked, but I have ptsd from not knowing what to study for JMO or mathcounts (have barely even started prep and its this week

), and Leo and Lucas are obv tryna MOP. So idkkk it is what it is. But, no one is guaranteed this year in our state no matter what, that's all ik for sure.

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HenryJW

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HenryJW

#77 h Mar 10, 2025, 11:58 PM

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AMathCountsguy10 wrote:

bro i might no long er be screwed cuz henry ptsd from no jmo qual and leo steadily getting worse over the years ur the only persen i have to be afraid of cuz u 46'd chapter

My brother in christ i dont got ptsd T_T. I am NOT selling as hard on state as AIME bruv (The hate is crazy. T_T)

This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by HenryJW, Mar 11, 2025, 12:03 AM

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AMathCountsguy10

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AMathCountsguy10

#79 h Mar 11, 2025, 12:01 AM

Y by

oups lol sry henry

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TOUCHGRASSAFTERPLZ

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TOUCHGRASSAFTERPLZ

#81 h Mar 19, 2025, 12:42 AM

Y by

got 11th place in MC States :wallbash_red:

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DhruvJha

730 posts

DhruvJha

#82 h Mar 19, 2025, 3:17 AM

Y by

TOUCHGRASSAFTERPLZ wrote:

got 11th place in MC States :wallbash_red:

thats not bad. lol. In one of my years I went from 27th in chapter( I did have covid and both types of flu so i didnt try and knew my school team was good so i'd make it anyways and my state is small so 50+ people make it from my chapter) to 3rd in state. Anything is possible with grinding

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iwillregretthisnamelater

6 posts

iwillregretthisnamelater

#83 h Today at 4:16 AM

Y by

Thank god I live in Iowa. But I do hope I don’t masterfully fumble my nats spot.

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mathelvin

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mathelvin

#84 h Today at 4:19 AM

Y by

Bruh it’s 11:19 pm at Iowa

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AtlantisII

525 posts

AtlantisII

#85 h an hour ago

Y by

stjwyl wrote:

Info:
In 8th grade so I'm really hoping I can make nats now

I currently mock around 38 - 40 on nationals questions from 2015+
I mock anywhere from 37 - 42 on state questons from 2020+

For the sprint round I also have noticed that the difficulty jump from questions around 19 and 20 to questions around 22 and 23 has been really large (starting from 2023). I've also noticed that the last three questions (also from 2023 ->) are IMO impossible to do in the 40 minutes.

On target I can get 7/8 or even 8/8 if I'm lucky but it's possible for me to get 6/8

I'm in MA :sob: really hard state so do I have a chance

Edit: Just mocked the 2022 state round and got a 41 (29 sprint, 12 target :sob:)

Currently putting around 3 hrs or so a day and I have been for the past 2 months
States is 3/1 for me :sob:

so am i cooked

as it turns out you are cooked and don't have a chance
sorry if that sounded mean its just the reality

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