Red Mop Chances

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imagien_bad

36 posts

imagien_bad

#1 h Mar 22, 2025, 8:27 PM • 3 Y

Y by bjump, megarnie, OronSH

What are my chances of making red mop with a 35 on jmo?

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hashbrown2009

131 posts

hashbrown2009

#2 h Mar 22, 2025, 11:18 PM

Y by

95%
I predict I got 34
665 674 distrib
hopefully we both make :pray:

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xTimmyG

255 posts

xTimmyG

#3 h Mar 22, 2025, 11:26 PM

Y by

@above not to be rude, but there's a 0% chance that score makes mop. mop this year is at minimum >=35, i'm predicting 36 makes while some 35 people will make but there will be tiebreaks

if it makes you feel better, you are only predicting one 7, with multiple 6s, which likely means you are over predicting your score, so you wouldn't miss mop by just 1.

This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by xTimmyG, Mar 22, 2025, 11:27 PM

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hashbrown2009

131 posts

hashbrown2009

#4 h Mar 22, 2025, 11:27 PM

Y by

xTimmyG wrote:

@above not to be rude, but there's a 0% chance that score makes mop. mop this year is at minimum >=35, i'm predicting 36 makes while some 35 people will make but there will be tiebreaks

Where are you getting this information from?
Also, what was your score on JMO, may I ask?

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hashbrown2009

131 posts

hashbrown2009

#5 h Mar 22, 2025, 11:29 PM

Y by

xTimmyG wrote:

@above not to be rude, but there's a 0% chance that score makes mop. mop this year is at minimum >=35, i'm predicting 36 makes while some 35 people will make but there will be tiebreaks

if it makes you feel better, you are only predicting one 7, with multiple 6s, which likely means you are over predicting your score, so you wouldn't miss mop by just 1.

True, my score might be too low as 34. However, it is my predicted score so we will see. Also, I am estimating my lowest possible score.

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xTimmyG

255 posts

xTimmyG

#6 h Mar 22, 2025, 11:29 PM

Y by

hashbrown2009 wrote:

xTimmyG wrote:

@above not to be rude, but there's a 0% chance that score makes mop. mop this year is at minimum >=35, i'm predicting 36 makes while some 35 people will make but there will be tiebreaks

Where are you getting this information from?
Also, what was your score on JMO, may I ask?

bro just look at the amount of people that are predicting >=35 alone just publicly on aops (there's certainly more people that I didn't notice or didn't share). also i'm predicting a 36 on jmo, but i'm not eligible for mop btw

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blueprimes

314 posts

blueprimes

#7 h Mar 22, 2025, 11:36 PM

Y by

xtimmyG might be valid for this icl
but I don't agree it's over 35 likely it's 35 flat

This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by blueprimes, Mar 23, 2025, 1:36 AM

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imagien_bad

36 posts

imagien_bad

#8 h Mar 22, 2025, 11:38 PM

Y by

Excuse me kind sirs @blueprimes @xtimmyG. Do you think I have less than a 50 per cent chance of making MOP??

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DottedCaculator

7313 posts

DottedCaculator

#9 h Mar 22, 2025, 11:44 PM • 6 Y

Y by KevinYang2.71, blueprimes, Exponent11, OronSH, aidan0626, vincentwant

xTimmyG wrote:

@above not to be rude, but there's a 0% chance that score makes mop. mop this year is at minimum >=35, i'm predicting 36 makes while some 35 people will make but there will be tiebreaks

if it makes you feel better, you are only predicting one 7, with multiple 6s, which likely means you are over predicting your score, so you wouldn't miss mop by just 1.

i give you 50 mana if the cutoff is more than 35, otherwise you give me 50000 mana, ok?

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bjump

989 posts

bjump

#10 h Mar 22, 2025, 11:48 PM • 13 Y

Y by elasticwealth, KevinYang2.71, blueprimes, MathPerson12321, OronSH, Mathandski, Lhaj3, aidan0626, KnowingAnt, AbhayAttarde01, Funcshun840, megarnie, vincentwant

$\text{[math]}$ $\text{[math]}$ $\text{[math]}$ $\text{[math]}$

Attachments:

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hellohannah

22 posts

hellohannah

#11 h Mar 23, 2025, 12:14 AM • 1 Y

Y by ESAOPS

hashbrown2009 wrote:

xTimmyG wrote:

@above not to be rude, but there's a 0% chance that score makes mop. mop this year is at minimum >=35, i'm predicting 36 makes while some 35 people will make but there will be tiebreaks

Where are you getting this information from?
Also, what was your score on JMO, may I ask?

You can see some (predicted) scores on https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GnCi5OIJVg0SGh67qDcO3znLINJarUebjXQ7TRaJkWk/edit?gid=0#gid=0

DM me if you want me to add your score!

This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by hellohannah, Mar 23, 2025, 12:16 AM
Reason: added "(predicted)"

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llddmmtt1

392 posts

llddmmtt1

#12 h Mar 23, 2025, 12:21 AM

Y by

hi does 42 make mop (im also not eligible)

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aliz

157 posts

aliz

#13 h Mar 23, 2025, 12:28 AM

Y by

llddmmtt1 wrote:

hi does 42 make mop (im also not eligible)

cutoffs are expected to be significantly less than 42 so you may have scored too high

hashbrown2009 wrote:

95%
I predict I got 34
665 674 distrib
hopefully we both make :pray:

im also predicting i get docked like 5pt lol

This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by aliz, Mar 23, 2025, 12:33 AM

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cowstalker

275 posts

cowstalker

#14 h Mar 23, 2025, 1:06 AM • 1 Y

Y by bjump

xTimmyG wrote:

@above not to be rude, but there's a 0% chance that score makes mop. mop this year is at minimum >=35, i'm predicting 36 makes while some 35 people will make but there will be tiebreaks

if it makes you feel better, you are only predicting one 7, with multiple 6s, which likely means you are over predicting your score, so you wouldn't miss mop by just 1.

bro woke up and chose violence lol

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rhydon516

541 posts

rhydon516

#15 h Mar 23, 2025, 2:22 AM

Y by

bjump wrote:

$\text{[math]}$ $\text{[math]}$ $\text{[math]}$ $\text{[math]}$

八八二零九 WE'RE SO BACKKKK *pounds table*

(real ones at hmmt know)

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NoSignOfTheta

1692 posts

NoSignOfTheta

#16 h Mar 23, 2025, 2:44 AM

Y by

hellohannah wrote:

hashbrown2009 wrote:

xTimmyG wrote:

@above not to be rude, but there's a 0% chance that score makes mop. mop this year is at minimum >=35, i'm predicting 36 makes while some 35 people will make but there will be tiebreaks

Where are you getting this information from?
Also, what was your score on JMO, may I ask?

You can see some (predicted) scores on https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GnCi5OIJVg0SGh67qDcO3znLINJarUebjXQ7TRaJkWk/edit?gid=0#gid=0

DM me if you want me to add your score!

Response bias

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ScoutViolet

597 posts

ScoutViolet

#17 h Mar 23, 2025, 2:55 AM

Y by

rhydon516 wrote:

bjump wrote:

$\text{[math]}$ $\text{[math]}$ $\text{[math]}$ $\text{[math]}$

八八二零九 WE'RE SO BACKKKK *pounds table*

(real ones at hmmt know)

Is this cHeAtInG on the HMMT guts round off of a chinese team???
we actually solved it LOL through team bash.

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hellohannah

22 posts

hellohannah

#18 h Mar 23, 2025, 2:56 AM

Y by

NoSignOfTheta wrote:

Response bias

yea i know but it still shows some top scores

add your score to reduce response bias

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llddmmtt1

392 posts

llddmmtt1

#19 h Mar 23, 2025, 3:16 AM

Y by

rhydon516 wrote:

bjump wrote:

$\text{[math]}$ $\text{[math]}$ $\text{[math]}$ $\text{[math]}$

八八二零九 WE'RE SO BACKKKK *pounds table*

(real ones at hmmt know)

bruh the problem wasnt even that hard :sob:

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Yihang2009

164 posts

Yihang2009

#21 h Mar 23, 2025, 3:59 AM

Y by

dawg what

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giratina3

449 posts

giratina3

#22 h Mar 23, 2025, 4:50 AM

Y by

evt917 wrote:

as a person who qualified to AIME using a suspicious method that shall be undisclosed, I somehow scored a 16 with minimal cheating,

and at the USAJMO, I used leaked test papers to help me score a 49. Do I qualify for MOP?

Same, I used leaked test papers to qualify for the AMC 8. I'm aiming to qualify for AMC 10 next year. (I'm kidding to anyone who didn't understand the joke)
But let's be honest, there were way too many cheaters this year. MAA has got to fix this.

This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by giratina3, Mar 23, 2025, 4:52 AM

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hgomamogh

37 posts

hgomamogh

#23 h Mar 23, 2025, 4:20 PM • 1 Y

Y by solasky

hashbrown2009 wrote:

95%
I predict I got 34
665 674 distrib
hopefully we both make :pray:

Please explain how you got docked on 5 out of the 6 problems.

If your writeups are just bad but the solution is correct, then you should not be docked. Otherwise, if major parts of your solution are wrong, you should be docked to 0+. I personally do not believe that you missed minor parts of the correct solution on 5 out of the 6 problems.

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MathRook7817

624 posts

MathRook7817

#24 h Mar 23, 2025, 4:27 PM

Y by

wait guys whats normally the cutoff to make the "easiest mop"

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Schintalpati

599 posts

Schintalpati

#25 h Mar 23, 2025, 4:32 PM

Y by

MathRook7817 wrote:

wait guys whats normally the cutoff to make the "easiest mop"

last year red was 30, but this year maybe a little higher

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MathRook7817

624 posts

MathRook7817

#26 h Mar 23, 2025, 4:34 PM

Y by

Schintalpati wrote:

MathRook7817 wrote:

wait guys whats normally the cutoff to make the "easiest mop"

last year red was 30, but this year maybe a little higher

wait so red mop is the easiest?

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Schintalpati

599 posts

Schintalpati

#27 h Mar 23, 2025, 4:36 PM

Y by

MathRook7817 wrote:

Schintalpati wrote:

MathRook7817 wrote:

wait guys whats normally the cutoff to make the "easiest mop"

last year red was 30, but this year maybe a little higher

wait so red mop is the easiest?

technically there is no easiest. And it varies cuz for JMO path cutoff is much higher than other 3 AMO paths since JMO is easier. All of them are equally important tho in all at MOP, like nothing really has an advantage over the other. Except Black MOP idk maybe that has some difference since its the TST group I think.

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imagien_bad

36 posts

imagien_bad

#28 h Mar 23, 2025, 4:37 PM

Y by

hellohannah wrote:

hashbrown2009 wrote:

xTimmyG wrote:

@above not to be rude, but there's a 0% chance that score makes mop. mop this year is at minimum >=35, i'm predicting 36 makes while some 35 people will make but there will be tiebreaks

Where are you getting this information from?
Also, what was your score on JMO, may I ask?

You can see some (predicted) scores on https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GnCi5OIJVg0SGh67qDcO3znLINJarUebjXQ7TRaJkWk/edit?gid=0#gid=0

DM me if you want me to add your score!

does this not imply that cutoff will be higher than 35???

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MathRook7817

624 posts

MathRook7817

#29 h Mar 23, 2025, 4:38 PM

Y by

thx hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

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hashbrown2009

131 posts

hashbrown2009

#30 h Mar 23, 2025, 4:43 PM

Y by

MathRook7817 wrote:

Schintalpati wrote:

MathRook7817 wrote:

wait guys whats normally the cutoff to make the "easiest mop"

last year red was 30, but this year maybe a little higher

wait so red mop is the easiest?

I mean I guess that's the one JMO are invited to
Black MOP is the top scorers on previous year TST and ofc the IMO team if some are left
Blue MOP is the next one, which is the next top 15
Green MOP and Red MOP: top 30 freshmen/sophomores on USAMO and the top 12 of USAJMO

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hellohannah

22 posts

hellohannah

#31 h Mar 23, 2025, 4:45 PM

Y by

MathRook7817 wrote:

wait guys whats normally the cutoff to make the "easiest mop"

there's no objective answer to this, but personally i think it's red. generally, i've heard the advice "if you're consistent with easier problems, take jmo (red cutoff), if you're fairly specialized in a subject, take amo (green cutoff)"

imagien_bad wrote:

does this not imply that cutoff will be higher than 35???

people tend to overpredict, but it seems fairly likely that it will be >=35

This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by hellohannah, Mar 23, 2025, 4:45 PM
Reason: grammar

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hashbrown2009

131 posts

hashbrown2009

#32 h Mar 23, 2025, 5:11 PM

Y by

hgomamogh wrote:

hashbrown2009 wrote:

95%
I predict I got 34
665 674 distrib
hopefully we both make :pray:

Please explain how you got docked on 5 out of the 6 problems.

If your writeups are just bad but the solution is correct, then you should not be docked. Otherwise, if major parts of your solution are wrong, you should be docked to 0+. I personally do not believe that you missed minor parts of the correct solution on 5 out of the 6 problems.

DM me

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hashbrown2009

131 posts

hashbrown2009

#33 h Mar 23, 2025, 5:11 PM

Y by

hgomamogh wrote:

hashbrown2009 wrote:

95%
I predict I got 34
665 674 distrib
hopefully we both make :pray:

Please explain how you got docked on 5 out of the 6 problems.

If your writeups are just bad but the solution is correct, then you should not be docked. Otherwise, if major parts of your solution are wrong, you should be docked to 0+. I personally do not believe that you missed minor parts of the correct solution on 5 out of the 6 problems.

Keep in mind: This is my lowest possible predicted score.

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xTimmyG

255 posts

xTimmyG

#34 h Mar 23, 2025, 8:26 PM

Y by

hashbrown2009 wrote:

hgomamogh wrote:

hashbrown2009 wrote:

95%
I predict I got 34
665 674 distrib
hopefully we both make :pray:

Please explain how you got docked on 5 out of the 6 problems.

If your writeups are just bad but the solution is correct, then you should not be docked. Otherwise, if major parts of your solution are wrong, you should be docked to 0+. I personally do not believe that you missed minor parts of the correct solution on 5 out of the 6 problems.

Keep in mind: This is my lowest possible predicted score.

thats not how it works, people rarely get docked this much. your lack of knowledge about scoring combined with your inexperience makes me believe you are lying about something.

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hashbrown2009

131 posts

hashbrown2009

#35 h Mar 23, 2025, 8:35 PM

Y by

@above
You can choose what you want to believe. However at the end of the day my score isn’t affected by what you think.

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xTimmyG

255 posts

xTimmyG

#36 h Mar 23, 2025, 8:35 PM

Y by

hashbrown2009 wrote:

@above
You can choose what you want to believe. However at the end of the day my score isn’t affected by what you think.

Either way, congrats on your impressive score!

This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by xTimmyG, Mar 23, 2025, 8:48 PM

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hashbrown2009

131 posts

hashbrown2009

#37 h Mar 23, 2025, 8:38 PM

Y by

xTimmyG wrote:

hashbrown2009 wrote:

@above
You can choose what you want to believe. However at the end of the day my score isn’t affected by what you think.

bro gave up :skull:

Why are you trying so hard to make me mad? Notice you’ve replied to basically every single one of my messages here.

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hashbrown2009

131 posts

hashbrown2009

#38 h Mar 23, 2025, 8:39 PM

Y by

And ah yes you claim I have inexperience when I’m literally older than you lol and plus what’s the point of lying on here?

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awesomeming327.

1674 posts

awesomeming327.

#39 h Mar 23, 2025, 8:40 PM

Y by

i think red mop cutoff will be 42

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KevinYang2.71

409 posts

KevinYang2.71

#40 h Mar 23, 2025, 8:43 PM • 8 Y

Y by blueprimes, Arcticturn, xTimmyG, brainfertilzer, zhoujef000, hsuya1, megarnie, Pengu14

xTimmyG wrote:

thats not how it works, people rarely get docked this much. your lack of knowledge about scoring combined with your inexperience makes me believe you are lying about something.

You are making me mad. Do not make me mad. This matter is not about my email being flooded with notification. While I want to nip that in the bud, the matter of more concern for me is the principle that you should not be posting so much on the forums. I am too tired to notify the moderators, but please consider your actions against me and the community and do better in the future. Thanks.

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awesomeming327.

1674 posts

awesomeming327.

#41 h Mar 23, 2025, 8:44 PM

Y by

KevinYang2.71 wrote:

xTimmyG wrote:

thats not how it works, people rarely get docked this much. your lack of knowledge about scoring combined with your inexperience makes me believe you are lying about something.

You are making me mad. Do not make me mad. This matter is not about my email being flooded with notification. While I want to nip that in the bud, the matter of more concern for me is the principle that you should not be posting so much on the forums. I am too tired to notify the moderators, but please consider your actions against me and the community and do better in the future. Thanks.

Let me tell you my opinion about this circus.
You posted a set of problems publicly. It has been seen by thousands of thousands of students. And you can’t say… well, don’t comment on them unless we let you! And it lasted more than two weeks! This is ridiculous. It’s like forbidding a forest to grow.

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hashbrown2009

131 posts

hashbrown2009

#42 h Mar 23, 2025, 8:50 PM

Y by

xTimmyG wrote:

hashbrown2009 wrote:

@above
You can choose what you want to believe. However at the end of the day my score isn’t affected by what you think.

Either way, congrats on your impressive score!

Thanks. Anyone else reading this just ignore my stupid above posts cuz they are absolutely non sense

This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by hashbrown2009, Mar 23, 2025, 8:52 PM
Reason: Hi

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