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jlacosta   0
Apr 2, 2025
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ahaanomegas   18
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For each $k$, $\mathcal{C}_k$ is biased so that, when tossed, it has probability $\tfrac{1}{(2k+1)}$ of falling heads. If the $n$ coins are tossed, what is the probability that the number of heads is odd? Express the answer as a rational function $n$.
18 replies
ahaanomegas
Feb 26, 2012
Rohit-2006
Apr 6, 2025
Putnam 2001 A2
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ahaanomegas
6294 posts
#1 • 3 Y
Y by Adventure10, Mango247, PikaPika999
For each $k$, $\mathcal{C}_k$ is biased so that, when tossed, it has probability $\tfrac{1}{(2k+1)}$ of falling heads. If the $n$ coins are tossed, what is the probability that the number of heads is odd? Express the answer as a rational function $n$.
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dinoboy
2903 posts
#2 • 4 Y
Y by Googlu15, Adventure10, PikaPika999, and 1 other user
Note that the probability is clearly $\dbinom{n}{1} \left ( \frac{1}{2k+1} \right )^1\left ( \frac{2k}{2k+1} \right )^{n-1} + \dbinom{n}{3} \left ( \frac{1}{2k+1} \right )^3\left ( \frac{2k}{2k+1} \right )^{n-3} + ...$
$ = \frac{1}{2} \left [ \left ( \frac{1}{2k+1} + \frac{2k}{2k+1} \right )^{n} + (-1)^{n+1} \left ( \frac{1}{2k+1} - \frac{2k}{2k+1} \right )^{n} \right ]$
$ = \frac{1 + (-1)^{n} \cdot \left (\frac{2k-1}{2k+1} \right )^n}{2}$

EDIT: atomicwedgie is completely correct. It appears I read this completely wrong.

Let $O_r$ denote the probability that given $r$ coins we have an odd number coming up heads, and $E_r$ similarly except for even.
First note that $O_1 = \frac{1}{3}$ and $E_1 = \frac{2}{3}$.
Furthermore, note that recurrence relations of $O_r = \frac{1}{2r+1}E_{r-1} + \frac{2r}{2r+1}O_{r-1}$ and $E_r = \frac{1}{2r+1}O_{r-1} + \frac{2r}{2r+1}E_{r-1}$
Hence $O_2 = \frac{2}{15} + \frac{4}{15} = \frac{2}{5}$ and $E_2 = \frac{3}{5}$
$O_3 = \frac{3}{7}, E_3 = \frac{4}{7}$

From here is is straightforward to prove via induction that $O_n = \frac{n}{2n+1}$ and $E_n = \frac{n+1}{2n+1}$, hence the answer is $\boxed{\frac{n}{2n+1}}$.
This post has been edited 3 times. Last edited by dinoboy, Feb 27, 2012, 8:21 AM
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atomicwedgie
1195 posts
#3 • 2 Y
Y by Adventure10, PikaPika999
That doesn't make any sense. My understanding of the question is that there are $n$ coins $C_1, C_2, \ldots, C_n$, and the probability that $C_k$ when flipped will land heads is $\Pr[C_k = H] = 1/(2k+1)$ for each $k = 1, 2, \ldots, n$. Therefore, you cannot regard distinct $j$-subsets of the $C_k$ as having equivalent probabilities of showing heads.
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62861
3564 posts
#4 • 6 Y
Y by Tintarn, USA5_2016, GreenKeeper, removablesingularity, Adventure10, PikaPika999
The good solution

@below: edited
This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by 62861, May 28, 2016, 1:29 AM
Reason: fix
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acegikmoqsuwy2000
767 posts
#5 • 3 Y
Y by Adventure10, Mango247, PikaPika999
CantonMathGuy wrote:
The good solution

wut
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Roachelsea
3 posts
#8 • 4 Y
Y by SaeedOdak, Adventure10, Sagnik123Biswas, PikaPika999
Here is an inductive proof of the problem, though I'm not sure if this is acceptable.

Claim that the probability that the number of heads is odd is $\dfrac{n}{2n+1}$.
Base Case: When $n = 1$, $P = \dfrac{1}{3}$.
Now assume for $n = k - 1$, the probability that the number of heads is odd among the $k-1$ tosses is $\dfrac{k-1}{2k-1}$. Then, correspondingly, the probability that the number of heads is even is $1 - \dfrac{k-1}{2k-1} = \dfrac{k}{2k-1}$.
For $n = k$. Consider the $k$-th toss. If the number of heads is odd for the first $k-1$ tosses, we need the $k$-th toss be a tail; otherwise, we need it to be a head. So the probability that after $k$-th toss the total number of heads is odd is \[\dfrac{k-1}{2k-1}\cdot(1 - \dfrac{1}{2k + 1}) + \dfrac{k}{2k-1}\cdot\dfrac{1}{2k+ 1} = \dfrac{2k^2 - k}{(2k-1)(2k+1)} = \dfrac{k}{2k+1}\]This completed the inductive proof.
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Moussore
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#9 • 1 Y
Y by PikaPika999
I like CantonMathGuy/John Scholes answer here - https://prase.cz/kalva/putnam/psoln/psol012.html. However, I think a complete answer would have to prove that the difference of sums of even and odd tosses of n coins ($E-O$) is indeed equal to the product of probabilities that those respective coins are even/odd. This statement wouldn't be too difficult to prove by induction though.
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natmath
8219 posts
#10 • 2 Y
Y by Sagnik123Biswas, PikaPika999
Wow, I'm surprised I could solve a putnam problem. Not too bad imo.

The probability of getting $i$ heads is the coefficient of $x^i$ in $f(x)=\prod_{k=1}^n (\frac{2k}{2k+1}+\frac{x}{2k+1})$
Applying roots of unity filter, the sum of the coefficients of the terms with odd power is $\frac{f(1)-f(-1)}{2}$
$f(1)=\prod_{k=1}^n(1)=1$

$f(-1)=\prod_{k=1}^n (\frac{2k-1}{2k+1})$
This telescopes to $\frac{1}{2n+1}$

So our answer is $\frac{1-\frac{1}{2n+1}}{2}=\frac{n}{2n+1}$
This post has been edited 2 times. Last edited by natmath, Dec 27, 2020, 10:36 PM
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MilleO1
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#11 • 3 Y
Y by Abidabi, Sagnik123Biswas, PikaPika999
We devise a recursive formula. Let $P(n)$ denote the probability of tossing an odd number of heads the first $n$ tosses. Then, $P(n + 1) = (1-P(n))\frac{1}{2n+3} + P(n)\frac{2n+2}{2n+3}$ with $P(1) = 1/3$. Computing the first few values of $P(n)$, they are $\frac{1}{3}$, $\frac{2}{5}$, $\frac{3}{7}$, and $\frac{4}{9}$. We now try to prove that $P(n) = \frac{n}{2n+1}$ by induction.

Base case, $n = 1$: we have $P(1) = 1/3 = \frac{1}{2(1)+1}$ which is true.

If the statement holds true for $n = k$, we show that the statement holds for $n = k+1$:
$$P(k+1) = \frac{2nP(n) + P(n) + 1}{2k+3} = \frac{2k\frac{k}{2k+1} + \frac{k}{2k+1} + 1}{2k+3} = \frac{\frac{2k^2+k}{2k+1}+1}{2k+3} = \frac{k+1}{2(k+1)+1}$$
Therefore by induction we have proven that for all $n\in \mathbb{N}$ we have $P(n) = \frac{n}{2n+1}$.
This post has been edited 4 times. Last edited by MilleO1, May 28, 2021, 8:19 AM
Reason: typo
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Mogmog8
1080 posts
#12 • 4 Y
Y by centslordm, megarnie, Sagnik123Biswas, PikaPika999
Let $p_n$ be the probability that the number of heads is odd for $n$ coins and similarly define $q_n$ for an odd number of heads. Then, by considering $\mathcal{C}_n,$ we have the recurrence \begin{align*}p_n&=q_{n-1}\cdot\frac{1}{2n+1}+p_{n-1}\cdot\left(1-\frac{1}{2n+1}\right)\\&=(1-p_{n-1})\cdot\frac{1}{2n+1}+p_{n-1}\cdot\left(1-\frac{1}{2n+1}\right)\\&=\frac{2n-1}{2n+1}\cdot p_{n-1}+\frac{1}{2n+1}.\end{align*}
Claim: $p_n=\frac{n}{2n+1}.$
Proof. We proceed by induction. Note $p_1=\frac{1}{2\cdot 1+1}$ and $$\frac{2n-1}{2n+1}\cdot\frac{n-1}{2n-1}+\frac{1}{2n+1}=\frac{n}{2n+1}.$$$\blacksquare$ $\square$
This post has been edited 2 times. Last edited by Mogmog8, Feb 12, 2022, 10:02 PM
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DeToasty3
596 posts
#13 • 2 Y
Y by pog, PikaPika999
Consider the function $f(x)= \prod_{k=1}^{n}(x+2k)$. Note that for every coefficient of a term $x^k$ in the expansion of this function, this represents the number of ways to flip the coins so that the number of heads displayed is equal to $k$. Additionally, note that by setting $x=1$, we have that the exponents of all terms are positive, while setting $x=-1$ makes only the coefficients of the terms with an even exponent of $x$ positive, while the coefficients of the terms with an odd exponent of $x$ are negative. Thus, our desired probability becomes$$\frac{f(1)-f(-1)}{2\prod_{k=1}^{n}(2k+1)} = \frac{f(1)-f(-1)}{2f(1)},$$where we divide by $2$ to account for each of the coefficients with an odd exponent of $x$ being added twice. Note that$$f(1)= \prod_{k=1}^{n}(2k+1) \quad \text{and} \quad f(-1) = \prod_{k=0}^{n-1}(2k+1)=\frac{f(1)}{2n+1}.$$Thus, our expression becomes$$\frac{1-\frac{1}{2n+1}}{2} = \boxed{\frac{n}{2n+1}}.$$
This post has been edited 3 times. Last edited by DeToasty3, Jan 6, 2023, 1:20 AM
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sanyalarnab
930 posts
#15 • 2 Y
Y by PikaPika999, mqoi_KOLA
Being a probability(and combi) nub, felt satisfying :-D
We define: $\mathcal{E}_n := \mathbb{P}[\text{even number of heads for a toss of n coins}]$
$\mathcal{O}_n := \mathbb{P}[\text{odd number of heads for a toss of n coins}]$
Then the first equation is that $\mathcal{E}_n+\mathcal{O}_n=1$.
Next we have $$\mathcal{E}_n=\frac{1}{2n+1}\mathcal{O}_{n-1}+\frac{2n}{2n+1}\mathcal{E}_{n-1}$$$$\mathcal{O}_n=\frac{1}{2n+1}\mathcal{E}_{n-1}+\frac{2n}{2n+1}\mathcal{O}_{n-1}$$Subtracting above two equations,
$$\mathcal{E}_n-\mathcal{O}_n=\frac{2n-1}{2n+1}(\mathcal{E}_{n-1}-\mathcal{O}_{n-1})$$Interating we have, $$\mathcal{E}_n-\mathcal{O}_n=\prod_{k=1}^{n}\frac{2k-1}{2k+1}=\frac{1}{2n+1}$$Here $\mathcal{E}_0=1$ and $\mathcal{O}_0=0$.
Thus $\mathcal{O}_n=\frac{1}{2}[(\mathcal{E}_n+\mathcal{O}_n)-(\mathcal{E}_n-\mathcal{O}_n)]=\frac{1}{2}\left(1-\frac{1}{2n+1}\right) = \boxed{\frac{n}{2n+1}}$
This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by sanyalarnab, Apr 14, 2024, 10:02 AM
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chakrabortyahan
380 posts
#16 • 2 Y
Y by Sagnik123Biswas, PikaPika999
@sanyalarnab orzorzorzsaar pilij lend mi sum ob eor omegamaxsuparlavil aikiu
This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by chakrabortyahan, Apr 14, 2024, 10:22 AM
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sanyalarnab
930 posts
#17 • 3 Y
Y by Martin.s, Sagnik123Biswas, PikaPika999
@chakrabortyahan u so pir0 whai u wuant tu tak aikiu forom dis smol bren kid(mods plix don't ban me for bad inglis... if u want to then ban @Horzi_da_gr8 for posting bad problems)
This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by sanyalarnab, Apr 14, 2024, 10:38 AM
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chakrabortyahan
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#18 • 2 Y
Y by PikaPika999, mqoi_KOLA
easy ...$\blacksquare\smiley$
jara uporer post tay like korechen tara keno like korechen saar hori ke ban korbar jonno na arnab ban na korar jonno
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IAmIAmTheHazard
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#19 • 2 Y
Y by sanyalarnab, PikaPika999
Before we delve into the proof, allow me to comment that prices of R22 freon are quite high, and I am in a pinch for money. I am a beggar by trade, having run out of the 50,000 USD * 8 from my presidential terms long ago. Thus, I kindly request your upvotes to support my passion.

Consider the generating function
$$f(x)=\Pi_{k=1}^{n}\left(\frac{2k}{2k+1} + \frac{x}{2k+1}\right)$$The coefficient of $x^k$ gives the probability of achieving $k$ heads. Thus the desired quantity is the sum of the odd degree coefficients, which is given by $\frac{f(1)+f(-1)}{2}$. We can easily see that $f(1)=1$. On the other hand, $f(-1) = \Pi_{k=1}^{n}\left(\frac{2k-1}{2k+1}\right)$, which telescopes to $\frac{1}{2n+1}$. Thus the answer is $$\frac{1-\frac{1}{2n+1}}{2}=\frac{n}{2n+1}$$
Again, any support helps out the cause. Your upvotes will not be in vain.
This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by IAmIAmTheHazard, Sep 9, 2024, 11:48 PM
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AshAuktober
995 posts
#20 • 1 Y
Y by PikaPika999
Let $X_n$ denote the required probability.

Then we obtain

$$
X_n = X_{n-1} \cdot \frac{2n}{2n+1} + (1 - X_{n-1}) \cdot \frac{1}{2n+1}
$$
$$
= \frac{2n-1}{2n+1} X_{n-1} + \frac{2}{2n+1}.
$$
Letting

$$
y_n \triangleq (2n+1) X_n,
$$
this becomes

$$
y_n = y_{n-1} + 1.
$$
Since $y_1 = 1$, we get $y_n = n$.

So

$$
X_n = \frac{y_n}{2n+1} = \frac{n}{2n+1},
$$
as desired. \(\square\)
This post has been edited 1 time. Last edited by AshAuktober, Feb 26, 2025, 5:51 PM
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Levieee
214 posts
#22 • 2 Y
Y by PikaPika999, mqoi_KOLA
\[
O(n) = \mathbb{P}(\text{odd number of heads in } n \text{ tosses})
\]\[
E(n) = \mathbb{P}(\text{even number of heads in } n \text{ tosses})
\]\[
O(n) + E(n) = 1
\]\[
\text{Observe that:}
\]\[
O(n) = O(n-1) \cdot \mathbb{P}(\text{last toss is tails}) + E(n-1) \cdot \mathbb{P}(\text{last toss is heads})
\]\[
\Longrightarrow O(n) = O(n-1) \cdot \frac{2n}{2n+1} + E(n-1) \cdot \frac{1}{2n+1}
\]\[
\Longrightarrow \boxed{O(n) = O(n-1) \cdot \frac{2n}{2n+1} + (1 - O(n-1)) \cdot \frac{1}{2n+1}}
\]
This post has been edited 3 times. Last edited by Levieee, Apr 6, 2025, 7:06 PM
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Rohit-2006
227 posts
#23 • 2 Y
Y by mqoi_KOLA, PikaPika999
\[
\mathbb{P}(\text{H}) = \frac{1}{2k+1}, \quad \mathbb{P}(\text{T}) = \frac{2k}{2k+1}
\]
The binomial distributions we consider to get the number of odd heads are:
\[
\left( \frac{1}{2k+1} + \frac{2k}{2k+1} \right)^n \quad \text{and} \quad \left( \frac{2k}{2k+1} - \frac{1}{2k+1} \right)^n
\]
We denote these as:
\[
F_1^k = \left( \frac{1}{2k+1} + \frac{2k}{2k+1} \right), \quad
F_2^k = \left( \frac{2k}{2k+1} - \frac{1}{2k+1} \right)
\]
The number of odd heads is given by:
\[
\frac{\prod_{k=1}^{n}F_1^k - \prod_{k=1}^{n}F_2^k}{2}
\]
Since tosses are independent events.
\[
\prod_{k=1}^{n} F_1^k = 1
\]\[
\prod_{k=1}^{n} F_2^k = \prod_{k=1}^{n} \frac{2k - 1}{2k + 1} = \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{3}{5} \cdot \frac{5}{7} \cdots \frac{2n - 1}{2n + 1}
= \frac{1}{2n + 1}
\]
Therefore, the required probability is:
\[
\frac{1 - \frac{1}{2n + 1}}{2} = \frac{n}{2n + 1}
\]Latexed by Leviee....solved by me....thanks Leviee
This post has been edited 3 times. Last edited by Rohit-2006, Apr 7, 2025, 4:49 AM
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