Books: Next

by rrusczyk, Sep 14, 2008, 2:14 AM

Next by Michael Lewis

I've read a few other books by Michael Lewis. The book that launched his career was Liars' Poker, which was my first required reading when I started at Shaw. (Actually, my only required reading. On day 2, my boss pushed all my other reading aside and put me on a high-priority project, but that's a fun story for another day.) More recently, I enjoyed Blindside and Moneyball. This book is a bit older, from just after the dot-com implosion in 2000-01. This book was meant as an argument that the internet really is all that and a bag of chips, stock market crash or not.

His arguments started mainly from some very engaging anecdotes about what would-be marginal players (teenagers in a couple cases) accomplished on the internet, in some cases because they were anonymous. These anecdotes were very interesting, but Lewis's broad sweeping futurology generalizations from them were shaky, at best. (To be fair, he apologized pretty profusely in the Afterword for his more ridiculous forays in this area.)

When reading books like this, I almost always start wondering if there's something bigger we should be doing with AoPS (and if you think of something, please share!). Through the first 150 pages, two of the biggest themes Lewis pressed was that the internet allowed people to circumvent traditional credentials and distribution channels. I'm embarrassed to admit that it wasn't until page 150 that I realized that he was talking about AoPS. Here we are, a group of people who cannot teach in public schools and don't have the higher degrees to write textbooks, and we're running a school and writing books used by many of the best students in the country. Granted, the latter happened even before the internet with the original AoPS books, but the scale at which we're able to do it now is entirely due to the internet. And it's pretty cool. (That said, even though my livelihood depends on the internet, I don't find the internet nearly as socially revolutionary as most futurologists do. Electricity, railroads, cars, the telephone, and television are all higher on the list in my book.)

I won't dive into the details of the anecdotes, but I will note that I was amazed that someone could write a whole book about the internet and it revolutionizing society in 2001 without ever writing the word "Google". I guess this just anecdotally supports his view that implementations of technology and their importance are changing more and more quickly. But it does cast some doubt on his futurology skills, for sure.

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Quote:
Since then, I think the SDMC has been run much better, as it's not being run for which the SDMC is the 4th or 5th math-related thing on his todo list.

Just curious-- the section in bold, does it read properly to you?

(I'm not trying to correct your grammar, it's just that my syntax class recently had a loooonnnggg discussion about sentences like these.)
This post has been edited 2 times. Last edited by Osud, Sep 14, 2008, 1:40 PM

by Osud, Sep 14, 2008, 1:22 PM

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A few words missing there; I fixed it. (I think!)

(And for other readers wondering, Osud is referring to my previous post.)

by rrusczyk, Sep 14, 2008, 1:39 PM

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Yes, from the prescriptivist standpoint, what you corrected it to is correct. (On the other hand, I once gave a presentation about who/whom usage in modern English some interesting linguistic studies have shown that the "use whom if it's an object" rule doesn't hold across the board; whether the speaker uses "who" or "whom" in a given situation also depends on prosody and other syntactic considerations.)

by Osud, Sep 14, 2008, 1:59 PM

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Having lived through the euphoria of the 1990's tech bubble, I can say that many smart people over extrapolated the trends that we were seeing like John Hagel or George Gilder. But that's not to say they were wrong.

Many of us, including my friends in management consulting, have come to believe in the theory that human nature is to over estimate the impact of technology in years 1-10 but under estimate the impact in years 11-20.

Given that most most Internet and mobility technologies hit the mainstream in the early-mid 1990s, it is not surprising that their transformative impacts are being felt now (as I watch my wife Twitter on her iPhone).

This has real implications for entrepreneurs. Many people are justifiably impressed with the success of social networking sites like Facebook and LinkedIn, and some ask why they didn't think of such an obvious idea themselves. But these ideas did exist in the 1990's. I distinctly remember a site call Six Degrees (or something like that) which had the very same concept. Unfortunately, in those days there was not a critical mass of Internet users or perhaps some other cultural tipping point that would have made those entrepreneurs billionaires.

In technology and the rest of life, timing is (nearly) everything.

For an interesting perspective on the unpredictable origins and impacts of older technologies I highly recommend the BBC series and companion book, Connections http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connections_(TV_series)

by djcordeiro, Sep 14, 2008, 4:25 PM

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I guess my question would be "How really revolutionary are these things (Facebook, Twitter, etc)?" I still would put electricity, railroads, and the telephone ahead of them. Pretty far ahead of them, in the case of electricity, which might have single-handedly drawn a significant portion of people out of abject poverty and very short lives. Facebook, etc., don't nearly touch that. Heck, even reliable plumbing was a much greater tool for social reorganization than the internet -- it's even more necessary than electricity for the urbanization of the last 150 years. Without it, we'd have epidemic after epidemic killing tens of thousands of people every week.

I definitely agree with the tendency to overestimate the effects during the first 1-10 years of something new, if only because overestimates make interesting news and fun stories. I'm not as sure about the idea that they underestimate the 11-20 year effects, though. I'm not in a flying car, and I'm unlikely to live 200 years, both things that futurologists have been arguing for long after the relevant technologies that inspired these claims (cars/planes, penicillin/discovery of DNA). But then again, I'm probably overestimating the degree to which these views are/were widespread among futurologists of yesteryear. Even now, I see a lot of claims about the "Singularity" and "nanobots" that have, to me, absurdly short timeframes, and I'm guessing these predictions will persist for a very long time with a straight face. But these predictions are likely less widespread than they appear, if only because the media won't report less interesting predictions for the future (like, say, mine).

by rrusczyk, Sep 14, 2008, 4:44 PM

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No argument here that many of those previous technologies have had a far greater effect, but we also have the benefit of several decades to evaluate that impact. One way that current communications technologies *COULD* have a similar impact is to change our understanding of place.

A tremendous amount of our global economy is dedicated to moving people (as opposed to goods) from one place to another. Most of us still commute to work or school. We fly for vacations and meetings or to re-establish relationships with friends and family.

But if that were to change, and communications technologies could substitute for a significant proportion of the people moving economy (at a fraction of the cost) we *might* look back on it as having the same impact as electricity or plumbing.

I say this having been a strong skeptic of video conferencing and telecommuting for several years. Even today when my company solutions Cisco Telepresence and our own Halo platform, I find them poor substitutes for face-to-face meetings.

With regards to the Technology projections I think they have less to do with the ability to engineer the technology as opposed to the rate of technology adoption. I could be proved wrong, but I imagine flying cars could be built today. The issue may be that the problem the technology would solve does not offset the considerable cost to implement it. Similarly, the value of perfecting strong AI to solve undetermined problems (and potentially introducing new ones) is less valuable than direct resources into more pedestrian applications like slightly smarter elevators.

Another thought is to apply Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. Previous innovations took care of our most pressing physical needs (at least in the first world) leaving the seemingly more trivial needs of "Self Actualization" to be solved by current technology.

by djcordeiro, Sep 14, 2008, 6:58 PM

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I pretty strongly agree with you that current technology won't be radically changing the idea of place anytime soon. Face-to-face is still miles better than videoconferencing, and the "work-from-home" fad is rightly receding to those few areas (and few individuals) where it can work. But my experience with people consistently working from home or working remotely is that it's pretty poor, and usually ends up in the disconnected person eventually leaving the team (or being pushed off the team). It can work in highly defined, isolated tasks (such as the three teachers we have who are not full-time employees of AoPS), but it's a bummer for tasks that require a great deal of teamwork, like most of the other things we do here.

I would guess we have the technology for flying cars. Just not the drivers for them :)

by rrusczyk, Sep 15, 2008, 12:57 AM

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As an addendum to my "just not the drivers for them" comment -- I think this is one area where futurologists are consistently wrong. They seem to think humans are much more mutable than they really are. Even though great changes can be made from one generation to the next, I think there are pretty consistent human characteristics that are very hard-coded into our DNA, and won't change on anything but an evolutionary timescale (which, at this point, may well be longer than the human race will exist, but that's another discussion).

by rrusczyk, Sep 15, 2008, 1:00 AM

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Your points are well taken, but I would offer that people may not be well equipped to fully appreciate technological change in their own lifetimes. We might have had the same debate a hundred years ago (with pen and ink) about the relative importance of electrification.

A legitimate position might have been that electric lighting of homes and cities was a fun novelty, but it may have only been an incremental improvement over previous gas lighting and wouldn't radically change society.

What we know in retrospective (though I once again can't recall my source) is that cheap electric lighting allowed people to stay up later. They used the out door lighting to more safely visit and support an economy of restaurants and entertainments and many used the lighting in their homes to read thus increasing the general level of literacy and education.

You could again be absolutely right, but in some cases it is the secondary and tertiary effects of a technology that have the dramatic impact and sometimes these are not fully understood for many years.

While he wrote to make a very different point, I see this issue related to Frederic Bastiat's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bastiat) discussion of "What is seen and what is not seen." It is also a recurring theme in the Connections series I mention above.

by djcordeiro, Sep 16, 2008, 12:16 PM

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By the way, I think your comments about the relative immutability of human nature are spot on. We are coming off of a century, however, where the opposite theory, The Blank Slate, held sway and resulted in plenty harm.

For a great discussion of this legacy and the science which refutes it I highly recommend Steven Pinker's The Blank Slate, The Modern Denial of Human Nature. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blank_Slate

by djcordeiro, Sep 16, 2008, 12:33 PM

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Good point about it being very hard to discern what major technology developed in our lifetime will have a huge long-term effect. I guess I'd bet that there are much bigger things in the not-too-distant offing than the internet... I just don't know what they are.

As for the mutability of humans, I'd guess that the answer is somewhere in-between the blank slate and "genes are destiny". My guess would be somewhere along the lines of people being more mutable on the downside than on the upside. That is, brought up in a healthy environment, genes will be the main determining factor. But a pernicious environment can have severely negative effects. However, maybe I just feel that way because I've read so much WWII history... As for why humans might be this way, I'd say that it's far easier to convince people that doing something bad is in their best interest than it is to convince people that doing something good is. That's why most of our laws are about what we can't do than about what we have to do. (And yes, implicit in that statement is the idea that most people act in their personal best interest most of the time. I think it would be *very* hard to convince me otherwise.)

by rrusczyk, Sep 16, 2008, 6:09 PM

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