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shtsxc12, Dec 18, 2009, 3:23 PM
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I'm not sure -- letting 10th graders into red MOP will catch some late bloomers. It will also help some top 9th graders from the year before overcome a bad day on the USAMO (but not a horrible one) in the 10th grade. Indisputably, it will result in fewer distinct students at MOP over time. It's not clear what the long-term effect of reducing variance in favor of "picking winners earlier" will be in terms of the US IMO team. I'd guess it would produce a small increase the strength of the team (but wouldn't be shocked if that weren't the case), at the cost of including fewer distinct students at MOP and thereby decreasing (again, only a small bit) student enthusiasm for the AMC at the very top. This decrease in enthusiasm will likely be more than offset by the fact that 7th-9th graders who had no chance at USAMO 2,3,5,6 now will have a test with more problems they can handle.
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"The decreasing of student enthusiasm for the AMC at the very top", may drive those students to abandon the dream of MOSP, instead of using more summer weeks to work on other things, like Intel, siemens projects, etc.
Also, late bloomers are very few compared to early bloomers.
Also, late bloomers are very few compared to early bloomers.
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"Also, late bloomers are very few compared to early bloomers."
Certainly more true than it used to be, and I think we're part of the reason why, but it would be nice if we could find a way to identify more late bloomers. I think there are a lot of very strong math students out there still that the universe of extracurricular math programs miss entirely.
Certainly more true than it used to be, and I think we're part of the reason why, but it would be nice if we could find a way to identify more late bloomers. I think there are a lot of very strong math students out there still that the universe of extracurricular math programs miss entirely.
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My strategy: Take the 10 and the 12 and then hope for the best 

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Mewto55555, Dec 18, 2009, 6:51 PM
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@rrusczyk, it is very likely that most of the red 1 will be last year's red mop, do you call those returning red mop "late bloomers" also ?
The very talented 9th graders who are taking USAMO, their opportunity will be reduced and their advancement may be delayed. I am not sure if it is the best way to discover future IMO team,
The very talented 9th graders who are taking USAMO, their opportunity will be reduced and their advancement may be delayed. I am not sure if it is the best way to discover future IMO team,
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I'm not sure what my opinion on this is, but I will say that it would have changed my experience -- 9th grade I didn't qualify USAMO and then 10th grade when I did qualify for USAMO, my score was one short of Blue MOP. Luckily, in 11th grade I made MOP, and there were quite a few other juniors in blue MOP whose first year was that year. But if there had been a red MOP for 10th graders in my day, I'm not so sure if it would have helped or hindered me...
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