Libertarian Writers

by rrusczyk, May 23, 2009, 4:56 PM

Many of the libertarian writers I read seem to be forecasting that this country is about to go through a huge libertarian revolution. I also note that most of them a very optimistic people in general -- they tend to be the same crowd forecasting that my generation will be healthy and wealthy into our 150s or 200s, etc. While I hope they're right (especially on the latter point), I think they're getting carried away by that optimism on both counts. But that could be because I'm naturally such a pessimist.

These fundamental personality traits inform so many of our views, I think. It's very hard to overcome them. Rationally, by almost any measure, the world just keeps getting better. The long-term trend has been consistently good for centuries. And yet if I were a squirrel, my instinct would be to stockpile nuts like crazy now, despite knowing that everything is likely going to be better than I can imagine.

That said, actions speak louder than words. Thinking about what I *do* rather than what I speak or think, maybe I'm an optimist at heart, after all.

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I would ascribe the libertarian optimism to two factors: the Internet and Ron Paul. Before the internet, libertarians were largely isolated (because they are relatively few) and therefore felt powerless. The Internet has connected them into coherent communities, so even though they are a small percentage of the U.S. population, they feel as if they are part of a huge movement. Ron Paul demonstrated the power that a relatively small number of highly motivated activists can wield; however, the fact remains that they actually control a relatively small number of votes, even if they can generate millions of dollars in donations. They forget that even a movement with 10 million people is only 3.3% of the U.S. population and thus not incredibly relevant.

Disclaimer: My analysis may be uninformed as I don't spend much time with libertarians outside of Slashdot and the like.

by worthawholebean, May 23, 2009, 7:11 PM

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Yeah, I think the internet has exacerbated the echo-chamber mentality of people all over the political spectrum, lamentably... It's pretty much the same reading Democrat or Republican sites, too.

by rrusczyk, May 23, 2009, 9:05 PM

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Yes, but I don't see the same "revolution coming!" sentiment from either parties, unless you count the Democrat's actual takeover of government. This is obviously due to the fact that Democrats and Republicans don't feel like they're on the fringe.

by worthawholebean, May 24, 2009, 12:15 AM

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Yes We Can! Yes We Can! Yes We Can! (OK, they happened to be right. About getting power, at least. Not sold on the rest of the things they believed Obama would accomplish, and I suspect neither are are many of them anymore.)

Bush Derangement Syndrome also was very much a function of the same echo-chamber mentality. So is the Obama-is-the-root-of-all-evil that you see among people who get all their news from right wing radio and blogs.

I see plenty of this mentality on both sides whenever they're out of power (and even when they're in power -- all presidents often play the embattled tragic hero). I think Hannity even calls his radio show "Conservatives in Exile" or some such. The idea of exile embeds within it, I think, the expectation of the return.

by rrusczyk, May 24, 2009, 1:34 AM

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To be fair, the "our team will rise again" meme in the Republican and Democrat echo chambers when out of power will almost certainly be correct eventually. As will "our catch phrases and ideology will appear to rule the day". Libertarians are almost certainly never to win the former, and far less likely than I hear many of them claiming on the latter.

I guess I'd put the Libertarian optimism in the same echo-chamber-exaggeration category as a Republican or Democrat saying "everything will be different when my candidate takes over" or "the world is going to end because the other team is in power".

by rrusczyk, May 24, 2009, 1:44 AM

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by djcordeiro, May 24, 2009, 2:04 AM

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You may also be interested in this article by Murray Rothbard on the difference between libertarians and conservatives with an emphasis on the issue of pessimism.

http://mises.org/story/910

by djcordeiro, May 24, 2009, 2:22 AM

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The other element here is that a lot of libertarian thought is about utopian stories. That doesn't work in an established society, so the options are to go off and found something in a new place, or have a revolution overthrowing the old system.

I'd rather not be there after a libertarian revolution. Utopias don't usually scale well.

by jmerry, May 24, 2009, 2:50 AM

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I'm going to take my usual role here - actually, Obama's approval rating has changed only -6% since just after inauguration. His disapproval rating has gone up by about 15 points, sure, but I don't think you can classify that as showing that the Obamaites are dissatisfied with him or don't think he's carrying out his campaign promises. Personally, I think he's been carrying them out well - the problem is the people who interpreted his promises to mean exactly what they wanted them to mean. As many skilled politicians can, Obama made it very easy for people to mold him to fit the "messiah" category - the person who agrees with them on everything and will therefore save the world.

by worthawholebean, May 24, 2009, 4:38 AM

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jmerry, good point about utopianism. I think that's one of the largest things I find most off-putting about the religious-fervor libertarians. I don't believe in utopias. You couldn't pay me enough to join their seasteading movement, for example.

As for Obama, as you note, people see what they want to see in him. He is indeed a very gifted politician that way. But fewer people have religion over him now (some of them lost religion for daft reasons, but others have good reasons). Of course he's not down in Bush territory, but, despite his continuous campaigning, he's not the messiah he once was. Not that anyone could live up to that standard, but he's artful enough to hang failures on Pelosi. The best thing that could happen for him is the same thing that happened to Clinton -- losing Congress 2 years in. Then he'll be able to hang failures on the Republicans. Though he may maintain enough support in the media to let that be the storyline in 2012 even if the Democrats still hold Congress, particularly if they engineer a bailout of newspapers at a federal level.

by rrusczyk, May 24, 2009, 1:43 PM

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As for Obama's promises, the key is which ones you cared about. He has not nearly kept all his promises; like any politician, he's broken a great many of them. But if you don't care about the ones he breaks, then he has kept his promises. If you want to hold him to the "all truth all the time" standard, then he's a bald-faced liar, but so are all the others.

On balance, I think he's about fleet-average on being what he represented himself as. He hasn't "kept all his promises", but he hasn't morphed into something completely different from what he sold himself as. But it's far too early to tell what will happen. (And events outside his control will determine the success or failure of his Presidency far more than those within his control, anyway.)

by rrusczyk, May 24, 2009, 2:08 PM

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Quote:
I think that's one of the largest things I find most off-putting about the religious-fervor libertarians. I don't believe in utopias. You couldn't pay me enough to join their seasteading movement, for example.

Of course that is the nice thing about libertarian utopianism, someone would have to pay you or persuade you to participate...not so with statist utopian plans.

It should also be pointed out that most libertarians don't believe that less government intervention would make the world perfect, only better.

by djcordeiro, May 24, 2009, 6:14 PM

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